Musings Before Collecting My First Art Blocks NFT
Just before hitting the sign transaction button on Metamask...
I wrote this just before collecting my first Art Blocks Curated piece.
I’ve been pondering for a while if I should collect a particular NFT. It has been two to three weeks eyeing the floor and trying to decide. The collection is called entretiempos from Marcelo Soria-Rodríguez on Art Blocks Curated.
I usually make this kind of decisions quickly (depending on the cost); it could be hours or just one to two days… This time is different as I have been trying to be more careful with how I spend money. Inflation, war, crypto crashes, etc., has made me re-think my spending habits and try to be much more austere.
So what's going on in my head – what are the arguments on both sides?
I think it is an excellent collection from an artistic perspective. Entretiempos has a unique style, nothing I have seen before. I am also familiar with the artist; I did a short interview with Marcelo for the #30NFTartists30days series; he is a business and tech veteran making thoughtful career decisions that could keep driving his value over time. He has established a solid brand, is one of the top sellers on the FxHash platform, and has been doing many exhibitions over the past months. Additionally, his new collection - el inefable momento - is minting exclusively on Art Basel Hong Kong tomorrow. New collections could move prices in both directions, but there is certainly more upside.
Today's price is 0.44 ETH (around $900). It is the cheapest available piece but ranked 188 out of 1000 (top 20%). His most valuable collection on FxHash is called contrapuntos, and the floor is around 920 Tezos ($1800), which means it is worth twice more than entretiempos. Usually, Art Blocks Curated collections are way more expensive than FxHash collections – this is changing, though, as FxHash is growing in popularity every day. So the question is, is entretiempos undervalued or is contrapuntos overvalued? Or are both undervalued? Or… Are both overvalued?
It is impossible to answer these questions, and the only way to know is to wait. See the effects of time in the generative art market.
So what’s my goal? Do I want to collect this particular piece because I like it and would like to own it? Or is it purely a financial decision? I think it is a combination. If I buy this piece, I won’t try to sell it in the short term, only if the price skyrockets to something over 3 Eth, which is very unlikely, at least over the next six months. Ideally, I would like to keep it for as long as possible while the price goes up and only sell it if I need the liquidity for something important.
I own many NFTs on the Tezos blockchain, especially on FxHash. I have some “blue-chip” NFTs like RGB Elementary Cellular Automaton, FxHash Generative Logo, Hashed Cities, Uninhabitable, multiple Smollskuls OG, and ASCII, Concrete, De/Frag V2, and V3… But nothing from msoriaro and nothing on Art Blocks. It seems like a sound opportunity to expand my collection in terms of a new platform and a new artist.
What’s the worst that can happen?
Entretiempos doesn’t have the best liquidity on Art Blocks. Secondary market sales are slightly over 500 Eth, which isn’t very high compared to other collections. This could mean it will be hard to sell it in the future… But as I said, if I collect this piece, I wouldn’t want to sell it soon. Low volume could also mean it hasn’t drawn enough attention, and collectors are sleeping on it.
If I had to make predictions (nothing very scientific this time) here are my price predictions in six months (% indicates my probability guess):
3 ETH floor+ (1% / 2%)
1 ETH floor+ (5% / 10%)
0.75 to 0.99 (10 / 15%)
0.5 to 0.75 ( 15% / 20%)
0.25 to 0.49 (25% / 35%)
0.1 to 0.25 (20%/ 25%)
<0.1 (5% to 10%)
There is also the mental effect. If the price moves either way (up or down), it makes me think about it and produces a bit of anxiety.
If it goes down, it feels like a bad investment because I could have bought it cheaper! That’s when I focus on the piece itself, and in this case, it is one that I like and helps me feel better. If it goes up, I start to wonder if I should sell.
Then there is the fact that Ethereum's price is meager at the moment. We are in a bear market, and usually, this is the right time to make moves.
So after structuring my thoughts and arguments, it feels like I should collect it. I think I’ll pull the trigger…
Until next time,
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